Friday 6 February 2015

Has Putin Already Won???

Front Page Magazine

With Merkel and Hollande meeting with Putin shortly to discuss a ceasefire, media coverage has been speculating as to the possible out comes. But in looking through a few of these accounts I'm struck by the notion that Putin already has won. Here's what I mean:


The Telegraph.

The Wall Street Journal.

The Guardian.

Notice it? Crimea? No?

It's not in there. Was the eastern conflict (which Russia isn't officially involved in of course) simply a way for Putin to consolidate his hold on Crimea?

The whole world: Vladamir, we need to stop the fighting in the Ukraine. They are a sovereign country and your border seems awfully porous when it comes to both people and weapon movements. We want to remove these sanctions but until the killing stops, we simply can't.

Vladamir: Ok, Ok. Because I'm so reasonable and such a nice guy I will step up and help solve this eastern Ukraine crisis which I have no part in but you western softies can't handle.

The whole world: Rejoice, remove sanctions, no more killing, we really diplomacied the shit out of Putin!

Two months later...

The whole world: Remember when we bullied Putin with sanctions until he caved? Wait, what ever happened with that Crimea thing?

It's almost like a reverse Assad moment, where Putin got the 'win' in the media, but really he went and made his ally give up all of his chemical weapons. The outcome was exactly what Obama had wanted.

If Russia is able to consolidate it's hold on Crimea, while having sanctions removed, does that not get Putin the outcome that makes the most sense?